Coffee Cup 3/27/2015 Overview:
So far, it’s been a reversal of fortune for wheat prices this week with the markets down roughly 25 to 30 cents, corn is up 5 cents on the week, soybeans and soymeal near unchanged, and soyoil up 30 points. There’s been little in the way of overnight recovery for wheat with the market up roughly 1 cent, corn near unchanged, soybeans down 1, soymeal down $0.50, and soyoil down 10 points.
The wheat market again showed a strong build of open interest up around 9,900 contracts on the prelim, corn was near unchanged, soybeans were up 4,900 contracts, soymeal down 2,200, and soyoil down 480. Later this afternoon we will get an updated Commitments report and, as of yesterday, we have funds with options estimated net short 350 mil bu of wheat, long 15 mil corn, short 145 mil soybeans, net long 12,000 lots of soymeal, and net long 8,000 soyoil.
Not much change in the North American weather forecast----mainly dry in the southern Plains with some rains possible late in the period---average to above average precip and below average temps in the Midwest-----the 11-16 day has above average precip for the southern Plains and the Midwest, below average precip for the northern Plains; temps are average to a bit below average. South America has below average rains in Argentina and northern Brazil, average to above average precip in southern Brazil, below average temps in most of South America. Mostly quiet in western Europe with some rains in the east. The FSU has above average precip in the west, drier in the east.
In the big picture of news, the trade awaits Tuesday’s USDA Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks report with weather after that. Today, after the close, there will be a Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report which traders have estimated All Hogs/Pigs on March 1 at 106.8%; kept for breeding 103.5%, and; kept for marketing 107.2%. Today is also option expiration for the April contracts. Based on open interest, trade earlier in the week had talked about ‘pinning’ the strike prices of $9.80 in soybeans, $330 in meal, 31.00 cents in soyoil, and $3.90 corn (not much open in wheat).
Otherwise, overnight news is fairly scant. South Korea bought 60,000t optional-origin corn. China’s futures were slightly better for soybeans and corn, off a bit for meal and vegoils. Malaysian futures were down 31 ringgits for palm oil at midsession tracking lower crude oil prices.
Last seen, U.S. gulf soybeans were +84K; gulf corn +59K; the interior U.S. soymeal basis finally steadied at -18K out West, +18K in the East. Soybean registrations declined again and now have only 1 registered. Brazil soybeans were listed at +44K, Argentina at +35N. The Argentine soybean harvest is seen 4% complete versus 3% last year; corn 8% versus 10%.Market Movers: USDA Weekly CROP PROGRESS Monday 3/30/2015 @ 3:00 pmUSDA Weekly EXPORT INSPECTIONS Monday 3/30/2015 @ 10:00 am USDA Grain Stocks Report Tuesday 3/31/2015 @ 11:00 amUSDA Prospective Planting Report Tuesday 3/31/2015 @ 11:00 amUSDA Weekly USDA EXPORT SALES Thursday 4/02//2015[DK1] HAVE A PREMIER DAYThe information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by Premier Cooperative, Inc. This report is provided for information purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities here in.